Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access – even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.Energy Access, Power System Planning, Sub-Saharan Africa

Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access – even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%

High Burden of Neurodevelopmental Delay among Children Born to Women with Obstructed Labour in Eastern Uganda: A Cohort Study

Over 250 million infants in low and middle-income countries do not fulfill their neurodevelopment potential. In this study, we assessed the incidence and risk factors for neurodevelopmental delay (NDD) among children born following obstructed labor in Eastern Uganda. Between October 2021 and April 2022, we conducted a cohort study of 155 children (aged 25 to 44 months), born at term and assessed their neurodevelopment using the Malawi Developmental Assessment Tool. We assessed the gross motor, fine motor, language and social domains of neurodevelopment. The incidence of neurodevelopmental delay by 25 to 44 months was 67.7% (105/155) (95% CI: 59.8–75.0). Children belonging to the poorest wealth quintile had 83% higher risk of NDD compared to children belonging to the richest quintile (ARR (Adjusted Risk Ratio): 1.83; 95% CI (Confidence Interval): [1.13, 2.94]). Children fed the recommended meal diversity had 25% lower risk of neurodevelopmental delay compared to children who did not (ARR: 0.75; 95% CI: [0.60, 0.94]). Children who were exclusively breastfed for the first 6 months had 27% lower risk of neurodevelopmental delay compared to children who were not (ARR: 0.73; 95% CI: [0.56, 0.96]). We recommend that infants born following obstructed labor undergo neurodevelopmental delay screening